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The creep rupture life of ferritic heat-resistant steel weld joints is limited by Type IV cracking that occurs in the heat-affected zone (HAZ), whose shape affects creep damage accumulation. In this study, we address the inverse problem of extending the creep rupture life of weld joints by controlling HAZ shape via welding conditions. As reported separately, we have developed a workflow that predicts weld joint creep rupture life from the predicted HAZ shape from welding conditions and have implemented it in the material design system. Using this workflow, we presented a tandem Bayesian model for predicting the creep rupture life from welding conditions via the geometric features of HAZ shapes (HAZ shape factors), which are considered to determine the creep rupture life. The prediction model of a HAZ shape factor from welding conditions was formed by Gaussian process regression. The prediction model of the creep rupture life was formed by Bayesian linear regression. These models were probabilistically connected by Bayesian statistical mathematics. An algorithm to increase the creep rupture life was developed to search for welding conditions. This method was applied to a 2 1/4Cr-1Mo heat-resistant steel weld joint simulated with a plate I-bevel three-layer gas tungsten arc welding. The number of welding conditions combination reaches 7 8 = 5764801. Start from 49 initial HAZ shape factors and 22 creep rupture life data, we performed forward calculations of 20 rupture lives to find welding conditions that can improve the creep rupture life by 12% over the initial data.

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  This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40194-024-01727-3

Keyword: Heat-resistant steel, Heat-affected zone, Weld joint, Creep property, Bayesian inference, Inverse problem, 21/4Cr1–Mo steel

Date published: 2024-03-16

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Journal:

• Welding in the World (ISSN: 00432288) vol. 68 p. 1313-1332

Funding:

• Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology JPMXP1122684766
• Council for Science, Technology and Innovation SIP1

Manuscript type: Author's version (Accepted manuscript)

MDR DOI: https://doi.org/10.48505/nims.4699

First published URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40194-024-01727-3

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Updated at: 2025-03-26 17:26:11 +0900

Published on MDR: 2025-03-26 17:26:15 +0900